Assumptions – the high blood pressure of strategy?

This is another snippet from the materials we will cover in our upcoming hybrid course, Intercept the Future. Next week I’ll send information about the pilot.

In the meantime, I hope you are getting value from this and other “thoughts.”

Assumptions – a valuable short-cut

In last week’s issue of MindPrep I used the acronym SWOT rather than spell-out “strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.” My editor wanted me to spell it out, but I assumed that most of my readers have a business background and understood what I wrote. I used a short-cut.

Based upon living in Loveland CO for about four years I hesitate when waiting at a stoplight as it turns green. I’ve seen too many NOCO (Northern Colorado) drivers drive through “late” yellow lights. My assumption is “better safe than sorry.”

I’ve provided workshops to a large client for almost fifteen years, so I waited to hear from them in January rather than write a new proposal. I think I know what they want and need.

I’ve explained three assumptions language, driving conditions, and client needs. But you and I make many assumptions that we’re unaware of until we purposefully think about them.

High blood Pressure

High blood pressure is a medical condition that is “invisible” until a nurse puts a cuff on your arm and either smiles or frowns. Or, it triggers a stroke or heart attack and you die!.

Since it’s normally invisible it’s often referred to as “the silent killer.”

What to do? Pay attention to your blood pressure. Have it checked regularly. The surprises are not good.

Assumptions are like blood pressure

Assumptions are useful when they are correct. You don’t have to start every business discussion with a recitation of baseline data. They underpin our conversations, and they underpin our strategies and plans.

But, they can kill your business when they’re wrong.

• Sears assumed its competitors were other department stores like Montgomery Ward and JC Penney. They ignored the danger of a simple “discount store” like Walmart. Oops.

• The banking industry assumed that sub-prime financial instruments like Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) were a wonderful source of profit until the towers of debt collapsed.

• Too many young people assumed that a college degree was that path to wealth and that loans were part of that path. But loans are just that – loans.

• Businesses assumed that a focus on “shareholder value” was a way to get senior executives to think long-term. Until they learned how to game the system.

Can you list ten?

I’ve conducted strategy training and workshops for over twenty years and often ask the participants to list ten assumptions they’re making about their business. They can usually write five or six right away. And then they stall. You see, assumptions are like blood pressure – invisible until we look for them.

Here are twelve categories of assumptions you’re making

Think about the assumptions you’re making about:

• Society and the business ecosystem

• Competitors

• Customers and clients

• Your offerings

• Staff and organization

• Equipment

• Facilities and locations

• Infrastructure technology

• Policies and procedures

• Metrics

• Partners

• Fiscal and knowledge resources

I once helped a manufacturing company plan a move from Illinois to Arizona and all we did was talk about these twelve categories. The move went well.

Next

You may have caught on that I’ve been giving snippets (six so far) about our tagline of “learn from the past, respond to today, and intercept the future.”

Next week I’ll return to “learn from the past” and comment on the number one reason we don’t learn from the past.

Until next week,

Bill