“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”

Sherlock Holmes

The future: four parts & three combinations

We think and talk about “the future” a lot. Maybe it’s about our retirement plans. Maybe it’s about our company’s strategy. Maybe it’s about our new grandson. Or maybe it’s about “growing older.”

But here’s the brutal reality – there are no data from the future. That said, there are four parts that combine to create our evolving future.

Parts of our future

What do we know about the future and what have we learned from history?

• Some of our future is KNOWN.
  • Consider demographics and cycles. For example, the Boomer generation was big and powerful, but is on the way out. Gen Z is big and powerful, and we are only beginning to see the impact. We can calculate the size and estimate the impact of generations into the future.
  • Repeating cycles have helped companies forever. Summer follows winter and we can prepare for both many months in advance. We know what to expect.
• Some of our future is HAZY.
  • Some situations have so many “moving parts” that we can only guess at probable outcomes.
  • For example, U.S. politics is shifting from ideologies that incorporated compromise to warring ideologies. We can guess at the 2024 elections, but it will shift until election day.
• Some of our future is EITHER-OR.
  • This is the future of legislation and judicial rulings.
  • For example, either this Congress will pass minimum wage legislation or it won’t/
• Some of our future is a BOLT-FROM-THE-BLUE.
  • This is the phenomenon of being surprised because of something genuinely unexpected or known but ignored.
  • Climate change is real, but too many governments, companies, and individuals are ignoring it. ChatGPT seemed to come out of nowhere and Microsoft and Google are playing catch-up.

Three resulting futures

The blend of known, hazy, either-or, and bolt-from the blue results in having to plan for three kinds of futures: probable, plausible, and possible.

• PROBABLE FUTURE. This is the near-future of known trends and stable forces.
  • E.g., given my genetics and lifestyle, I will probably live into my mid- to late-80s.
  • E.g., Amazon and Walmart will probably remain the dominant retailers for the next five years.
  • E.g., given the melt-rate of Icelandic and Antarctic glaciers, much of Florida’s coastline will be under water in 35 years.
• PLAUSIBLE FUTURE. This is the future of modified trends and modified forces over a longer time horizon.
  • E.g., with advances in geriatric medicine and pharmacology, I have a shot at living into my mid-90s.
  • E.g., oil prices might rise dramatically, and EV cars might falter. Amazon’s delivery fleet could become too expensive to operate and they might succumb to Walmart because of a lack of stores.
  • E.g., New York City will experience massive flooding as hurricanes move further north in the coming few decades.
• POSSIBLE FUTURE: This is the future of new trends, breakdowns in existing trends, and new technology. The time horizon is variable due to the potential impact of technology.
  • E.g., a novel virus impacts senior-citizens disproportionately and I don’t make it to 78.
  • E.g., Gen-Z and Gen-Alpha (now in grade school) rebel against old, global retailers and shift most purchases to locally made and locally sold goods. Amazon and Walmart become the Sears Roebuck of the late 21st century.
  • E.g., We get global agreement and action on climate change and we start to cool the planet. (Don’t hold your breath.)

Back to Sherlock

Your theory or theories about the future should not be a wish-list. Pay attention to the data and “let the data speak.” If all you have is ideology you belong in Congress.

Next time

Going back to the list from MindPrep 196, Brad wanted to hear more about “the end of thinking.” I’ll work on that in the coming week and send my comments along.

Oh, I mentioned last time that I was going to comment on the future of MindPrep. Well, that’s still rolling around my brain. Hopefully I’ll be ready to share my thoughts next week.

Cheers,

Bill

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