Why did I save that book?

I admit that I have a love affair with books. Real books. Real, paper books. Books that you can write in and underline. Some of you know what I mean; others of you think I’m old. So be it.

Anyway, as 2023 moves toward 2024 I’m looking at the bookshelves in my World Headquarters (aka, my office) and wondering “Now, why did I save that book?” So, I go to the bookcase, pull the book down and look for my notes and underlinings. Is there anything I saw then that is useful now?

I did that earlier this afternoon and grabbed Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them by Bazerman and Watkins (2004). (OLD!) Here are a few things I underlined. I’ll tell you why this book grabbed my eye at the end of this little article.

From the book: “We define a predictable surprise as an event or set of events that take an individual or group by surprise, despite prior awareness of all the information necessary to anticipate the events and their consequences.”

They go on to identify the six characteristics of predictable surprises:

1. Leaders knew a problem existed and that the problem would not solve itself.
2. Predictable surprises can be expected when organizational members recognize that a problem is getting worse over time.
3. Fixing the problem would incur significant costs in the present, while the benefits of action would be delayed.
4. Addressing predictable surprises typically requires incurring a certain cost, while the reward is avoiding a cost that is uncertain but likely to be much larger.
5. We often fail to prepare for predictable surprises because of the natural human tendency to maintain the status quo.
6. A small vocal minority benefits from inaction and is motivated to subvert the actions of leaders for their own private benefit.

This book was published in 2004 and it used 911 and the Enron failure as examples. But, look at the world around us now. Predictable surprises abound.

How might we be surprised by AI technology? Melting glaciers? Six-year-olds who will discover pornography on their computer at the age of seven? Boomers who have not or could not get ready for old age? Gen Zs who are getting a third-word education? Washington’s dumbing-down of discourse?

If I’ve depressed you, I’ll refer you to my late mother who managed to get through two world wars and the depression, and still raised me to be an optimist. To quote Mom, “We’ll get through this.”

Yep, we will muddle through, but it’s going to be a rocky ride. More than that, it’s going to be a grand adventure for those of us who will step up and intercept the predictable surprises.