What Will Cause the Future of Social Security?

As many of you know, I’ve been writing about the need for all of us to “learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future.” And, as luck would have it, I found some of my notes from about ten years ago wherein I examined some lessons from the past and considered the causes of the future.

So here is a modified list of “future causes” applied to the upcoming fight in Washington about Social Security.

Please comment. Also, if you’d like some interesting history lessons you can find a link at the bottom to grab Ten from Then which has ten short history snippets and the generic version of “what causes the future.”

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Causes of the Future of Social Security

The future of Social Security won’t just happen — it will be shaped by the actions (and inactions) of everyone in the system. Its future is being caused right now by the decisions made in Congress, by voters, by taxpayers, and by those designing policies with competing priorities.

Here are a few truths to keep in mind:

• Self-interest drives decisions. Stakeholders want different things — retirees want security, workers want fairness, politicians want reelection. The system is NOT designed for the collective good; it’s shaped by negotiation and compromise.

That said, what might the system look like if we focused on needs, instead of wants? Does Elon Musk need social security? How about the widow living at the end of my block. I know this sounds foolish, but what if we got serious about “the collective good?” Gee, so old fashioned!

• Every fix comes with tradeoffs. Raise the retirement age? Increase payroll taxes? Cap benefits? Each choice solves one problem and creates another. We must be ready to bargain and prioritize. Unfortunately, Congress does not seem to be in the mood to bargain over anything.

Let’s consider the Stockdale Paradox (look it up) and face the brutal facts while hoping for the best. The brutal fact is that the Social Security System WILL become insolvent in about ten years. Congress can keep hoping for the best but that means NOT facing the facts.

• Unintended consequences are real. Policy decisions ripple through the economy and culture. What seems like a simple fix could shift work patterns, savings behavior, or even intergenerational trust. The late business thinker, Peter Druker, would advise us to think about the futurity of our decisions.

The U.S. is getting very close to zero population growth. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population grew by only 0.5% in 2023, one of the slowest rates in modern history. So, like it or not, we need more people working so they can pay into the system. This means we need immigration to make up for the baby dearth we are experiencing. You may not like it, but that’s a fact.  

• Cause and effect are not close in time. We’re living with decisions made decades ago. Any reform today might not show results until long after today’s lawmakers are gone. My sons and grandson will feel the impact of today’s decisions much more than I will.

Any reform today may take decades to bear fruit, but the political cycle operates on a two- or four-year rhythm. That mismatch in timelines is a serious structural challenge to fixing a system that we KNOW needs fixing.

• The larger ecosystem is moving. Demographics are shifting. People are living longer. Birth rates are falling. Technology is changing how (and how much) we work. Most of these forces are outside the control of Social Security administrators, irrespective of political party — but they shape the system’s destiny.

Social Security doesn’t exist in a vacuum — and neither does its future.

The longer we delay action, the fewer options we’ll have — and the more likely we’ll end up with a future shaped by unintended consequences instead of intentional design. (I wrote about unintended consequences last week. Check it out.)

What actions do you think we need to take today to shape a better Social Security system for all of us tomorrow?

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If you want to grab a copy of Ten from Then you can find it HERE.