Want Success? Assume failure.

Yep, success is right around the corner

OK, you’ve spent hours, days, weeks perfecting your plans for the future. Maybe you called it a plan. Maybe you called it a strategy. Maybe you called it a transformational initiative.

No matter what you call it, you have a goal and you know what you have to do to accomplish it. You’ve thought hard and carefully. You are focused on success and anyone who doubts the plan is simply a naysaying ignoramus.

But, we know that “something” is going to happen to keep you from total success. You are going to be disappointed sometime and somewhere in the future.

Hmm, it didn’t go as planned

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Icarus was sure he was going to fly to the sun – until he crashed with melted wings.

Coke was sure we’d love New Coke – until we didn’t.

Ford was sure the Edsel would be a success – until it wasn’t.

Apple was sure the Newton was the future of a portable computer – until we didn’t buy them.

Cryptocurrency aficionados are sure that DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is the future of banking until, well, we’ll see.

The power of a premortem

A premortem is a great (!) planning technique that too few organizations use because they are too focused on success. They understand the risks and mitigate against them. They are diligent about their SWOT analysis and are careful about defending against known and assumed weaknesses and threats.

But sometimes, maybe more than sometimes, the focus on success makes them blind to failure.

Here’s a simple remedy to the strategic blindness. Assume failure.

• Pick a date in the future (3 to 5 years is a good range) and declare that we have failed! No ifs, and, or buts about it. YOU HAVE FAILED!

• Now, work backwards and search for the likely causes of failure.

• Examine these likely causes of failure and perform a root cause analysis on them.

• Remember, the assumption is that your plan failed. Don’t go into denial!

I’ve used this technique in past strategy workshops, and I know it always opens eyes because you must ignore your ego and “sense” of success. Use it.

Want to know more?

The cognitive scientist Gary Klein has written about this. Read his explanations as to why this works. I just know that it works.

Next

We continue our preview of our new course Intercept the Future by offering some comments about assumptions. Our position is that assumptions are the “high blood pressure” of strategy.

Cheers,

Bill