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Knute Rockne and the DC-3

May 31, 2022 by Bill Welter Leave a Comment

Here is this week’s mini-history for you education and entertainement. I hope you find it useful.

A crash

The Transcontinental and Western Air flight was a Fokker F.10 Trimotor enroute from Kansas City to Los Angeles on March 31, 1931. On the first leg of the flight to Wichita, the airplane crashed and all eight on board died, including famed football coach Knute Rockne.

The wings of Fokker Trimotors were manufactured out of wood laminate and moisture had leaked into the interior of one wing over a period, weakening the glue bonding the structure. One spar finally failed, and the wing became unstable. The demand for a safer, all-metal aircraft lead the government to demand improvements.

Boeing developed the Boeing 247 for United and Douglas produced the Douglas Commercial (DC) for American. Their earlier aircraft, the DC-2, was too small and was replaced by the DC-3. American inaugurated passenger service on June 26, 1936, with flights from Newark and Chicago.

The DC-3  

DC-3

The DC-3 was a marvel of  aviation design. It could cruise at an amazing 207 mph and had a range of 1,500 miles, carrying 21 to 32 passengers in (relatively) quiet comfort. The base price of a new DC-3 in 1936 was around $60,000–$80,000. Truly amazing.

Until the DC-3, air travel from New York to Los Angeles required 25 hours, more than one airline, at least two changes of planes and as many as 15 stops. Now, a single plane could cross the country, usually stopping only to refuel.

The 1938 initial coast-to-coast American Airlines flight left Newark Airport and arrived in Glendale, CA on time. And it took less than 19 hours. Wow! Even more exciting is that they only had to stop three times to refuel.

Implications

Technology + comfort + good food (a whole lot better than today!) brough the airline industry fame and (sometimes) fortune. Businesspeople could now envision a national business. Wealthy Easterners could visit the wonders of California. Distance and time took on new meanings. Travel became an “event” unto itself.

Lessons?

The unintended consequences of a new technology often go beyond the vision of the designers. I wonder about the unforeseen consequences of:

  • Cryptocurrency
  • nRNA
  • Machine learning
  • Fusion reactors
  • Protein folding
  • Quantum computing

Remember, the lovers of a new technology often overestimate its arrival while the deniers often underestimate its arrival. All we know for sure is that some technology will surprise us again.

By the way, it takes under six hours to fly non-stop from NY to LA today.

Filed Under: Learn from the past, stories Tagged With: minihistory, preparedmind

Thomas Jefferson and Cryptocurrency

May 23, 2022 by Bill Welter Leave a Comment

What might the guy who invented our currency say about today’s world of cryptocurrency and DeFi (Distributed Finance)?

A bit of history

Thomas Jefferson (you know, one of the guys who signed the Declaration of Independence) was a smart guy and was thinking about the monetary system for this new country, the United States of America. So, he put his recommendation down on paper and wrote Notes on the Establishment of a Money Unit, and of Coinage for the United States in 1784.

He advocated for using the dollar and making smaller units decimal fractions of the dollar. Obvious, right? But he was the first to advocate such a system and the United States was the first country in the world to adopt one. (Although Congress messed up his plan with the quarter instead of a 20-cent piece.)

His defense for the decimal system was summed up in this statement: “…in all cases where we are free to choose between easy and difficult modes of operation, it is most rational to choose the easy.”

Cryptocurrency

Smart, techy people around the world are recommending a new approach to currency and banking based on computer programs and algorithms. Bitcoin is now “old” in that it was introduced in 2009. It’s well recognized but not in favor because of its huge energy usage.

But it’s not alone. We also have Ethereum, Cardano, Tether, Solana, Dogecoin, TerraUSD, Luna, and many, many more. They all have the same basis of being digital instead of paper notes or coins. And, supposedly, since there is no money to count, we don’t even need banks.

Their big drawback is their volatility, since they are not generally backed by “real” assets.

TerraUSD, Luna, and Anchor

Earlier this month, the story of TerraUSD, Luna, and their quasi-bank, Anchor, hit the news – and not in a good way.

TerraUSD

TerraUSD was touted as a “stablecoin” (A digital currency that is pegged to a “stable” reserve asset like the U.S. dollar or gold to reduce volatility.) However, rather than dollars or gold, it was backed by Luna, which was just another cryptocurrency. But these cryptocurrencies were linked by, essentially, an inverse algorithm. Supposedly, this would keep the TerraUSD stable.

It seemed to work. In 2021, Luna’s price increased a 100-fold and nearly $10 billion worth of TerraUSD stablecoins were created. Happy days!

To make it even more complicated, Do Kwon, the tokens’ creator, introduced Anchor, a quasi-bank for crypto users. They could “deposit” their Terra stablecoins and earn 20% interest. (20%! Not even Bernie Madoff promised that!) However, unlike a real bank, there was no deposit insurance.

Unfortunately, just like in the “old days” there was a “run on the bank” and system collapsed. The price of a Luna, once worth more than $100, dropped to $0.00001834 and the TerraUSD was no longer stable. Gone!

The future

Cryptocurrency is not dead and will play a role in our financial system “someday.” But like any new technology, the early adopters see it happening soon while the detractors hope it never happens. The reality will come somewhere in between.

Listen to Mr. Jefferson. He was a smart guy.

Filed Under: prepared mind, stories Tagged With: minihistory, preparedmind

Japan/Manchuria :: Russia/Ukraine

May 15, 2022 by Bill Welter Leave a Comment

I was re-reading Barbara Tuchman’s 1981 book Practicing History and came across an article she wrote for Foreign Affairs, in 1936. It was entitled “Japan: A Clinical Note.” It smacks of today’s news.

Historical context

Japan invaded Manchuria on September 19, 1931. They established a puppet state, called Manchukuo, and occupied it until the end of World War II. 

Tuchman’s opening paragraph

“Ever since the Manchurian incident, Japanese foreign policy has been reaping the world’s condemnation. Unlike an individual, a nation cannot admit itself in error; so Japan’s only answer has been to tell herself that her judges are wrong and she is right. To strengthen this contention, she has built up the belief that she acts from the purest motives which her fellow nations willfully misunderstand. The more they disapprove, the more adamant grows Japan’s conviction that she is right.”

Do we ever learn from history?

Here’s Tuckman again, later in the book.

“If history were a science, we should be able to get a grip on her, learn her ways, establish her patterns, know what will happen tomorrow. Why is it that we cannot? The answer lies in what I call the Unknowable Variable – namely, man. Human beings are always and finally the subject of history. History is the record of human behavior, the most fascinating subject of all, but illogical and so crammed with an unlimited number of variables that it is not susceptible of the scientific method nor of systematizing.”

Prepare for the future?

Russia is not Japan. Today’s inflation is not 1970’s inflation. Today’s banking issues are not the Savings & Loan crisis of the past.

But …. Human nature is consistent. Become a “people person” to better understand the future.

Filed Under: Learn from the past, stories Tagged With: minihistory, preparedmind

The Evolution of the Networked House

May 9, 2022 by Bill Welter Leave a Comment

This is a story that has nothing to do with the internet. It has to do with health, safety, and quality of life. And, if you’re like me, you’ve enjoyed the benefits of a networked house for a long time.

“Back in the Day”

You used candles and kerosene lanterns for light at night. If you got careless a fire ensued and maybe, just maybe, you burned down the house.

You used a privy or outhouse for your toilet needs. Or maybe you lived in a tenement with a water closet for twenty people. Nice, but it emptied into a cesspool in the “back yard.” Not too sanitary.

You only occasionally bathed because you had to haul water from the well and then heat it on a wood-burning stove. Good thing that everyone smelled as bad.

You had coal delivered so that you could heat the house in the winter. Oh, dad had to stoke the furnace in the morning before he went to work.

If someone got sick you had to “run into town” to fetch the doctor (who may, or may not, be home.)

The networked house?

From the late 1800s until about 1940 the houses and apartment we’re familiar with today slowly connected to a series of networks: electricity, water, sewer, gas, and telephone.

Edison’s vision was for a lighting system, not just a light bulb. New York’s Pearl Street Station was started in the 1880s and provided electricity to about one square mile. Now we flick a switch, not strike a match for light.

New York City relied on well water until 1842, when the Croton Aqueduct brought water along a forty-two-mile journey. Pressurized, filter water could then be brought into a house (or tenement) and be trusted to be free of many contaminants.

Water closets finally connected to a network of sewers and took sewage away. Chicago’s sewer system was started in the 1880s (requiring raising many city streets up to 14 feet) and was the largest in the world by 1930.

Natural gas pipelines were constructed in the 1920s and gas slowly replaced delivered coal for heating purposes. Basements became habitable and houses could be heated throughout the day.

Although telephones were in use in the late 1800s, the real growth came after switching technology was developed and continuously improved in the early 20th century. As the old Yellow Pages ad used to say, “Let your fingers do the walking.”

Perspective

Sometimes I look at today’s innovations and wonder “so what?” Moving from Web2 to Web3 may make a difference to someone looking for a new way to move money without using banks but, again, so what?

Bitcoin or a working toilet?  Which one do you think will be seen as a more important innovation a hundred years from now?

Looking back in time I see numerous innovations that solved real problems and changed lives. We need more “mechanicians.” (FYI, that’s an 18th century word for artisans skilled in the creation, operation, and repair of machinery that “did stuff.”)

Filed Under: Learn from the past, stories Tagged With: minihistory, preparedmind

R101: Gas bags, an overweight dirigible, and politics

May 2, 2022 by Bill Welter Leave a Comment

Germany started flying rigid airships when they launched the Zeppelin line in 1910 and successfully carried passengers globally for thousands of flights. This form of civilian air travel was interrupted by WWI but resumed after the war.

In 1928 the Graf Zeppelin took passengers on a 112-hour non-stop flight from Germany to New Jersey. Over the next nine years it flew over a million miles, on 590 flights, carrying freight, mail, and thousands of passengers around the world. Safe and reliable.

So why did England decide to design their own airship rather than copy the airframe of the Germans? Pride? Anti-Germany sentiment? Not sure.

R101

In 1924, the British government launched competitive efforts for a new airship, pitting the government against a private contractor. The result was two airships, the R100 and R101.

The government R101 ended up twenty-three tons over design weight and was then lengthened for additional gas bags to improve lift. It was ready for air-worthiness testing in October, 1930. And here is where politics played a deadly hand.

Lord Thompson, the royal Air Minister, demanded the R101 to be shown at an air show in London on October 20, 1930. However, he also had planned a round trip to India to “show the flag” over a major part of the British Empire. So, with a total of seventeen hours of flight test after the retrofit, the R101 launched for the first leg to India during the night of October 4th, the latest opportunity to meet both schedules.

It gently crashed a few hours later against a high French hill. But because hydrogen was used for the gas bags, forty-six of the 54 aboard were killed in the ensuing fire.

The official board of inquiry found that it was “impossible to avoid the conclusion that the R101 would not have started for India on the evening of October 4th if it had not been that matters of public policy were considered as making it highly desirable that she should do so.”

Lesson

Political pressure and operating decisions are a deadly combination. Beware.

Filed Under: Learn from the past, stories Tagged With: minihistory, preparedmind

Remember when cars reduced pollution?

March 27, 2022 by Bill Welter Leave a Comment

No, of course you don’t remember. The pollution was the stink and slime of horse manure, and the year was 1890.

Horses, those hay burning engines of transportation, produce 15 to 30 pounds of manure per day.

Gosh, you need a big baggie to pick up your horse’s droppings when you take it for a walk. But what about a city, like New York, who “employed” a lot of horses for transportation and hauling?

A lot of horses? Well, in 1890 there we about 170,000 horses in use in New York. And they were stabled in the city as well.

Hmmm, 170,000 horses times approximately 22 pounds of manure per day equals about 1,900 TONS of “droppings” per day. Good grief!! That must have made for interesting slush on snowy days.

The good news is that the horseless carriage came to the rescue. No manure, just a little bit of smoke. But like New York’s streets crowded with horses, we now have streets crowded with cars.

The bad news is that they produce “invisible pollution” in our air.

The good news is that we have electric vehicles.

The bad news is that they will produce plenty of dead batteries that require safe disposal.

What’s the lesson?

Every solution produces a new problem. Pay attention to the problems you fix. You may have created a new problem “down the road.”

This is the last mini-history lesson for a while. If you want to grab our letter, MindPrep, please sign up HERE. We have more lessons on the way.

Filed Under: Learn from the past, stories Tagged With: preparedmind

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