Intercept the Future? Some Challenges

First, two questions.

Can you predict the future? No.

Can you anticipate the future? Yes.

And, with some work and luck, you might be able to intercept it.

So, the first challenge of intercepting the future is that of accepting these questions and their answers. If you think you can predict the future, you’re simply wrong. However, if you don’t accept the responsibility of anticipating the future you will be taken by surprise. And that’s not a good thing.

Other challenges? Here are three to consider as you go boldly into YOUR future.

The Paradox of the Present

I found this in Amy Webb’s wonderful book, The Signals are Talking.

“We have a hard time seeing the future because we lack a shared point of reference rooting in our present circumstances.” For example, how would you explain a Tesla to Henry Ford? Or how would you explain a Covid-19 vaccine to a medieval monk dealing with the Black Plague?

This idea was stated famously by the science fiction author, Arthur C. Clarke, when he stated, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Humans have underestimated the power of technology to change our lives in the past; it will happen again.

The challenge: We don’t believe in magic.

Watch for magic. It’s in your future.

Interrogate the Future

I picked up this phrase when reading Margaret Heffernan’s book, Uncharted. She was explaining the origins of scenario planning after WW II. “As a process it grew out of an understanding of complexity and the recognition that it was impossible ever to identify all the forces at work that define the future.”

She explained the use of scenarios simply as “… identify a plausible variety of futures and interrogate them for implications and consequences.”

The challenge: Scenario development takes time and imagination. Both are often lacking in many organizations.

Swap stories with your friends and colleagues.

The Gray Rhino

Sometimes we can see the future, but we willingly ignore it.

We have known about water shortages in the southwest for decades but do nothing substantive to deal with it. (We should at least have stopped building new housing. But we “needed” more tax money.)

Our bridges and physical infrastructure is falling apart, but we can’t “afford” the repairs.

We had a decade of various epidemics (SARS, MERS, Zika, measles) around the world for ten years before Covid-19 “took us by surprise.” We must have assumed that viruses couldn’t get on airplanes.

The idea of obvious dangers that we willingly ignore was described beautifully in Michele Wucker’s book, The Grey Rhino. She explained “A Grey Rhino is a highly probable, high-impact threat: something we ought to see coming, like a two-ton rhinoceros aiming its horn in our direction and preparing to change.”

The challenge: We see a future we don’t like, so we ignore it. We don’t have the courage to deal with it.

Make a list of the gray rhinos you see in your world. Now, share the list.

Also

Watch for an announcement about my new Strategic Mindset Series. It’s a four part series of 50 minute webinars (includes Q&A)

Also, Brad Kolar, the founder of Avail Advisors, will be my guest writer for the next two week on the MindPrep Newsletter. His topic is important for the “big data” age – Manage Stories, Not Data. You can find out more about Brad and his work at availadvisors.com.