Four Futures, Twelve Questions, Five Ways to Think

I have a dozen questions to consider as we think about the future. But first, orient yourself to your four futures. After, I’ll comment on five different ways to think about your futures.

All of us are faced with four futures.

• Known: This future is understood by carefully examining demographic, industrial, and societal trends that are established and unstoppable. For example, Boomers are aged, Gen-Z are coming into power, and Gen-Alpha will hit the workforce in a few years.
• Hazy: This future is understood by considering ranges of possible / probable outcomes of changes in technology, ecology, and policy. For example, autonomous vehicles will be common in 2030 (or maybe 2040).
• Either/Or: This future is examined through the lens of your planning assumptions and vetting their ongoing viability. For example, either the U.S. will put a station on the moon by 2035, or not.
• Bolts-from-the-Blue: These future events invalidate past “truths” that you have used to develop your existing plans. Your oldest and most underutilized skill, imagining, must be reenergized, and used. Covid-19 is now old news, but Chat GPT4 will change many business models.

Twelve questions

Here are a dozen questions and comments to consider as you think about the future for yourself or your organization.

• What have been our past blind spots? This metaphor, based on the human eye, relates to those events and conditions that we don’t see, because they are hidden or because we don’t want to look for them.

Past success often makes us blind to changes happening around us. This results in “strategic inertia.” Think about old-line department stores.

• What clues and signals are we rationalizing away? Clues and signals that we see but contradict our beliefs or the status quo are often discounted to the point of labeling them to be false or not applicable.

Although 2018 saw outbreaks of viruses (e.g., Zika, Lhasa Fever, SARS), we saw them as “over there” and assumed we were protected by distance. Covid-19 got on an airplane.

• What surprises could really hurt (or help) us? Surprise conditions or events are rarely neutral. They tend to amplify both the strengths or weaknesses in our organizations and systems.

ChatGPT is triggering business model changes and panic in schools and universities.

• What emerging technologies could change the game? Although we often associate “technology” with equipment or computers, the word relates to the techniques, skill, methods, and processes used in the accomplishment of an objective. 

Ozempic and Wegovy are changing the diet industry as you’re reading this.  

• Do we think big enough?  We need to think in “bigger boxes.” Change comes from the outside and we need to consider conditions in our industry and the economy at large. Look for signals of change when they are still weak.

Name an industry that is immune to Amazon.

• Do we think far enough? There are three zones of strategic thought: the reaction zone, the adaptation zone, and the anticipation zone.  The reaction zone consists of today’s issues and most managerial time is spent there. Stretch your thinking and look for clues that trigger thought of anticipation.  

Like him or not, look at Elon Musk. He’s a big thinker and will change more than one industry model.

• Do we know our most important long-term survival challenges? Urgent often gets in the way of important. Prioritize the challenges facing your organization out into the future.

The U.S. Department of Defense considers climate change to be a serious threat to many of its installations by 2050. The Navy is already making pier changes on the east coast. Congress seems to continue to argue whether or not it’s even real.

• What questions are we afraid to ask? Questions are the engine of intellect. Unfortunately, we often leave questions unasked because of an organization’s “hands off” attitude. Use a pre-mortem discussion to raise questions that no one wants to ask.

Too few organizations spend time asking and answering this question: What could cause us to fail rapidly?

• What assumptions are dangerous? All plans are built on a set of assumptions. When they are correct, they are a great aid to shared thinking. But when they erode, they will kill your strategy. Expose and vet key strategic assumptions.

When the Japanese auto manufacturers “discovered” quality, GM assumed that “Americans will buy American.” Good assumption for my father. Questionable assumption for me. Poor assumption for my sons.

• Who has different points of view about the future and are we willing to listen? It’s rare to find an organization wherein all the stakeholders agree on the definition of the challenge, much less the solution. Unfortunately, stakeholders who disagree with the popular point of view are often labeled as naysayers and then ignored.

Map your stakeholders and build a communication plan for differing groups.

• What should we change now to prepare for the future? Peter Drucker, the late management sage, wrote and spoke about “the futurity of present decisions.”  We need to look at the potential intended and unintended consequences of today’s decisions and what they mean for the future.

Look at today’s business model and mentally place it ten years out. Will it still work for your future customers and employees? What changes can you make to intercept tomorrow’s reality? Will Gen-Alpha see you as relevant to their needs?

• Do we have the right capabilities to deal with the four futures? The capabilities that got your organization to today may, or may not, be the capabilities needed to get your organization to tomorrow. Learn how to identify the capabilities you will need before you need them.

I’ve been involved with projects for over half a century. I’ve never come across an organization that brags that their projects are always on time, in-budget, and provide full scope results. Changes are in your future. Strengthen your project leadership capabilities.

Five ways to think

You will spend the rest of your life “in the future.” We suggest you make the best of the challenges you will face by integrating five thinking “disciplines:” critical thinking, skepticism, systems thinking, design thinking, and future thinking. 

• Blend critical thinking and skepticism to evaluate evidence, challenge assumptions, and avoid common biases. Focus on the value of doubt and inquiry.
• Use systems thinking to solve complex business challenges by understanding the interrelationships between different parts of a system. Build a holistic perspective and evaluate the interconnectedness of the parts.
• Employ design thinking to create user-centered solutions that meet the needs of your customers. Focus on challenge-framing and ideation.
• Future thinking will help you anticipate future trends and patterns that are shaping the future of business. Environmental scanning and scenario designing are key capabilities you need.